Forrester: The Future of Apple?

ITNews.com.au out of Australia is running an article today on a new report by Forrester entitled "The Future of Apple." Rather than cite the ITNews article, here's the abstract from Forrester:

Consumer product strategists frequently ask Forrester how Apple's product strategy will evolve: What will Apple's product portfolio look like five years from now, and how is Apple preparing for that future today? Forrester notes that Apple has completely remade itself from a PC maker to a consumer devices and digital music leader over the past eight years — thus setting the precedent for additional radical change over the next five. While there are a number of speculative industry hypotheses for the future of Apple — including scenarios like Apple as a media pure play or Apple as the "American Sony" — Forrester sees a future that ties together many of these hypotheses into a coherent consumer product strategy: Apple will aim to become the hub of the digital home, offering eight key products and services to connect PCs and digital content to the HDTV-stereo audio-visual infrastructure in consumers' homes. To fulfill this strategy, we predict that Apple will launch new products, re-engineer the Apple Store, and expand into in-home installation services.

For those with Forrester access, the fulltext is available here.

Do I think they're right? Maybe... Forrester rightly points out that Apple has never been into the idea of open platforms:

"Apple’s commitment to controlling the user experience through closed systems manifests itself in the locking of iPhones to outside applications and its unwillingness to license Mac OS X to clone makers.13 This inclination toward closed systems would inhibit mass-market success in the digital home, where a wide variety of manufacturers’ products must be tied together.

Interestingly, however, this is not truly the case. Apple's flagship computing product, the iMac, is essentially an open platform. Indeed, Apple's computing products are a hardware-software solution designed for delivering services. Early services include media delivery (iTunes, AppleTV, iPod, iPhone), while the commitment to A/V production (iMovie, Garage Band, iDVD, Aperture, Final Cut Studio, Logic) continue to grow, even to the point of causing credible speculation that Apple will buy Adobe. With the end-user software-hardware platform, Apple satisfies the delivery, or the conduit part of the 'triple-C' trifecta. With their media aggregation and production software, they hit the content portion. It's the Commerce part that they're after next, and it's the one that's the brass ring. They've started with the iTunes store, but I think that's not the end of it. The real prize is the end consumer.

While the Forrester article argues that Apple won't go after Cloud computing, I believe Apple wants to use .Mac as their entry point to the Platformization of the their products to enable services. I've wondered aloud about the play for Safari and .Mac, and this article brings it into sharp focus. Forrester speaks to this, albeit dismissivley:

The era of cloud computing is dawning, with more and more applications being delivered over the Web... Apple already is a great software company, from OS X to .Mac platform applications to iTunes. Perhaps that’s exactly why this won’t be Apple’s future: Software always has been, and will continue to be, integral to what Apple does. There’s no need to pivot strategically, and it’s difficult to imagine Apple foreswearing its virtuosity in developing stylish hardware. Apple’s strong suit continues to be in integrating software and hardware into one continuous, best-in-class user experience.

The future of computing is pervasiveness, and connecting a personal computing experience from the living room to the subway to the office is going to require a very cloud-like platform strategy. This strategy requires a framework for the services that will make up that pervasive experience. RIght now, digital media, whether professionally or personally produced represents a cornerstone and a gateway.

Just as the Mac is only as good as the software that runs on it (Adobe's Creative Suite is a prime example, as are Panic's great applications), the end-to-end computing experience will require value-driven applications beyond word processing, media, and media creation. And here's the rub. Apple can't build 'em all.

I believe Apple built their Final Cut Suite and Logic to raise the bar and help their OS compete with SGI, Sun and Microsoft. I believe Apple is architecting it's next play to compete with Google and possible Microsoft. They know the only way they'll compete is to define the leading value proposition for the industry and own the relationship between consumer and computer. This leads me to a new acronym based on one borrowed from the customer service sector: VEBCAK: Value Exists Between Chair And Keyboard.

Photoshop Express public beta adds Flickr support - Yahoo! News

From the Sorta Kinda Notable But Really Pretty Much Expected Dept.:

"...enhancements to Photoshop Express include the ability to access photos through the popular Flickr service. You can download photos from a Flickr account into Photoshop Express, edit and add effects to them, then send them back to Flickr.

Adobe has also added a new Save As feature that lets you save multiple versions of an image. There's also an embeddable player you can use to post slideshows to Facebook, MySpace, and other social networking Web sites."

Link to Macworld/Yahoo! article

In Play... New Media Consolidates (again)

Yahoo is still in play, according to Jerry Yang, Cringely has suggested that Adobe is in the cross hairs of Apple's sights, Adobe has opened up Flash (and Air) as a service-based platform, Amazon & Apple both have rich-media pervasive devices, Microsoft is 'meshing' up Live, and Google is holding Verizon's feet to the fire. Are these related? I think so...

New media as a concept is comprised of three critical pieces that have been touted and revisited for as long as the Web has been commercialized:

Content - User- or -corporate generated, Content is the killer app of new media; and it's the reason that people want pervasive broadband access.

Commerce - The monetization of content, Commerce (either via advertising or retail) represents the underwriting of all content in new media.

Conduit -As the method of connecting consumers with content (so traffic can be monetized), the Conduit is the way that people engage with new media.

Yahoo!, as the 800 lbs Web 1.0 gorilla, represents access to vast amounts of users and traffic that can be monetized. They have consistently placed themselves as a media company, even going so far as to hire traditional media mogul Terry Semel as their CEO. While recently deposed and replaced with interim CEO (and Yahoo! founder) Jerry Yang, Semel's implemented strategy remains largely unchanged: Continue to 'portalize' their offerings and function as the entry point to the internet. If they can be the starting point after the conduit, they can commercialize or monetize the traffic they draw.

Google and Amazon, both of whom have made a business connecting commerce and content, are each exploring ways to extend themselves out into the ether; providing services to better draw and convert traffic into dollars.

Microsoft, Apple and Adobe are all engaged, in their own unique ways, in generating the mediums by with which the content and commerce connect with the conduit - i.e. the OS (Microsoft & Apple), the hardware (Apple and to a degree, Amazon), and Adobe (The rich-media platform).

Finally, Verizon (along with Comcast, AT&T and T-Mobile) in the US, along with major wireless and terrestrial providers around the globe are regarding themselves as the gatekeepers, and are beginning to recognize that access fee revenue (while perfunctory and profitable), are ultimately being threatened by commodification. They are seeking methods to monetize the traffic they deliver to content and commercial interests. This has led to the Net-Neutrality fight, and the rise of IPTV as a conduit.

Microsoft is waiting and seeing, as is their way, ready to use their muscle when they need. They made a (as-yet-incomplete) play for Yahoo!, hoping the union of their Web 2.5 vision and Yahoo!'s Web 1.0 stability would lead to security in the marketplace. Google is pressing Verizon to make good on its wireless ambitions, knowing they're in the best position to deliver next-generation services. Adobe is opening up itself to wireless and, yes, IPTV partners to secure its position as the content and commerce platform that can provide the richest end-user experience. and Apple? Well, as Cringley points out, they just want to control all three (consider the power of an Adobe-Apple-AT&T version of Content-Commerce-Conduit trifecta).

This ain't over, by a long shot. A laissez faire marketplace assures us a competitive landscape. A consolidated 3-C landscape assures us that only those with the right relationships or the right value will reach consumers. Devices like the iPhone (mobile/pervasive access), the XBOX360 (IPTV/Terrestrial access), and Verizon's proposed pervasive broadband network (upon which, of course, Google can deliver their own services), will ensure that these closed and semi-closed networks can control each of the 3 components of monetization. Moreover, they are seeking, in no small way, to dismiss the home-brew and open source communities.

By locking down the networks, not only do they each control the flow of information, they are also seeking to control the flow of cash across the Content-Commerce-Conduit value chain.

I, Cringely | Iron Man

All I can say is read this... To the end.

Comments forthcoming...

Link

Flashing The Flash: Adobe Opens Up

h/t to Slashdot on this one:

Adobe has opened up their proprietary Flash formats - SWF & FLV to the developer community, removed licensing restrictions for the playback, and is making the mobile player available for free. They are doing to Macromedia's flagship product (since having acquired it 3 short years ago) what they were able to successfully do with PDF.

The Open Screen Project is dedicated to driving consistent rich Internet experiences across televisions, personal computers, mobile devices, and consumer electronics. The Open Screen Project is supported by technology leaders, including Adobe, ARM, Chunghwa Telecom, Cisco, Intel, LG Electronics Inc., Marvell, Motorola, Nokia, NTT DoCoMo, Qualcomm, Samsung Electronics Co., Sony Ericsson, Toshiba and Verizon Wireless, and leading content providers, including BBC, MTV Networks, and NBC Universal, who want to deliver rich Web and video experiences, live and on-demand across a variety of devices.

Link
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